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US Dollar Encouraged by Risk of Global Trade Conflict Escalation

by Didimax Team

Market participants react to the US Dollar more carefully, due to the emergence of potential new trade war conflicts due to the steps of US protectionism. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is traded almost flat in Wednesday's trading (10 / April). DXY moved around 97.01, while EUR / USD was steady at around 1.1261. 

In general, market players tend to act more cautiously due to the emergence of potential new trade conflicts due to the steps of US protectionism, ahead of the release of important publications from a number of world central banks. On Tuesday, mass media reported that the US Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, had submitted a list of products from the European Union which were planned to be subject to import tariffs by the United States. 

 

The move is said to have been taken as a countermeasure for the United States, because the European Union continues to provide subsidies for leading aircraft manufacturers Airbus. Airbus is Boeing's main rival, a giant US company that has recently been dragged down by scandals due to the fall of two aircraft made in Indonesia and Africa.

The news had pushed USD / JPY to weaken to reach a daily low of 110.98, as investors hurriedly targeted the Yen as one of the safe-haven currencies. However, the US Dollar stretched again to the level of 111.23 versus Yen in today's trading, due to market concerns about what statement would be delivered by the European Central Bank after its policy meeting.

In addition, the market is also looking forward to the publication of minutes of the US central bank's policy meeting (FOMC Meeting Minutes) which will be released in the early hours (01:00 WIB). In particular, investors and traders will examine the reasons behind the Federal Reserve's decision announced in March regarding the termination of planned interest rate hikes.

Brexit Becomes the Focus

The US dollar was observed to be stable at the beginning of trading week. After various employment data last week, the market is now paying attention to the Brexit issue. The US Dollar moved relatively stable against other major currencies. The US NFP report last Friday rebounded so that it slightly erased concerns about Uncle Sam's economic slowdown. 

However, the strengthening of the Greenback was very limited, because data on workers' wages slowed below expectations. The US Dollar Index (DXY) which measures the strength of the US Dollar against the six major currencies is in the range of 97.33, slightly weaker than the daily Open price.

Market Attention Towards Brexit

Investors saw that US employment data tended to vary at the end of last week, in accordance with the Fed's decision to remove all possible Hike Rate this year because the US economy was considered to be slowing down a little. Market focus this week is on Brexit and US-China negotiations, which still leave some crucial points before an agreement is reached

The Fed was unable to raise interest rates or lower it, due to a job report last Friday. This caused a very limited strengthening of the US dollar and the potential to weaken again. The market saw the US-China trade agreement not be achieved in the near future and the Brexit issue was approaching the deadline is April 12.

The Deadline Has Been Set

April 12 is the deadline set by the European Union to Britain to leave EU membership. In response to this, PM May has asked for an extension of time until June 30. It's just that EU members such as the Netherlands and France expressed doubts about PM May's plan to delay Brexit further. This also triggered the GBP / USD currency pair to weaken to a one-week low.

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