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The Oil Price Increases amidst the Dollar Strengthening

by Didimax Team

At the beginning of the week, BRENT and WTI has the increasing value. It is facilitated by the whole high demand commodity. It has been observed since at the beginning of the summer. 

Furthermore, the pause in a negotiation about the started nuclear deal again with Iran may indicating the delayed stocks from the OPEC organization. That is quite reasonable. 

This situation has an impact to the increasing oil price. The BRENT oil futures for the August period has been increasing by 35 cent or 0.5%. That becomes $73.86 per barrel since the Monday session. 

Meanwhile, the WTI for July is also up for 41 cent or 0.6% to become $72.05 in the morning. Rebound is also pushing the oil price spot in the Europe and Asia to the multi-monyh highest level.

 

 

The Upward Trend is Continued

Generally, both of the contracts continue their upward trend in the last four weeks period. They found a driver due to the vaccination speed which is more optimistic in the world.

In the other case, the summer flight is also opened again. In the currency market, the EUR / USD is still under the pressure around the early level in April. That is based on the data. 

Furthermore, this situation is happened after the strongest weekly decline in three months. The investor interest in the risky asset is faded after James Bullard gave his opinion.

He is the head of the Federal Reserve in St. Louis. Bullard said on Friday that ghe regulator steps to a faster monetary tightening is a natural respond for the economic growth nowadays. 

In Inflation, the Increase is Faster

It is a fact that in a situation with inflation, the increase is faster than the expectation. It is because this country is recovering itself from the pandemic. You know that the coronavirus spread is still there. 

To this background, the most possible scenario is that the serious strengthening of dollar to the Euro. Howeber, there are some requirements to reach that situation. What are those things? 

The example is when there is a significant change to the Europe interest rate and if the EUR / USD pair fails to place above the 1.1970. At the some time, the market participants should note something. 

They may not rely on the American currency exchange which is stable. The central bank in the other countries must agree on the plan to normalize the national policy when their economy recovered. 

The Gold Price is Stronger

The global gold price is stronger again due to the weakening US dollar. That situation helps to recover the interest of that commodity. Quoted from the CNBC on Tuesday, gold was significantly increased by 1.1 percent. 

That became 1.782,83 US dollar per ounce. Meanwhile, the gold future in the United States was closed. That increased by 0.8% to become 1.782.90 USD per ounce. Is it has an impact? 

An analyst said that so many people used that correction to buy gold. It is especially in that price level. There is a value to hold that commodity position, especially for a long-term period. 

A Value that can Hold the Price

There is a value that can held the gold position. That is said by Phillip Struble, the head of market strategy in the Blue Line futures,  Chicago. The price of gold is dropped by 6 percent.

It means ghat 113 dollar per ounce. It happened last week when the Federal reserve signed that they will start to reduce the asset purchase and can increase the interest rate in 2023.

But the Dollar Index (DXY Index) retreated from a two-and-a-half-month high, prompting investors to turn to gol. It is especially which fell for six sessions in a row before Monday's bounce.

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