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Central Bank is Waiting for the Meeting, USD Loosens

by Didimax Team

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) moved away from its 18-month high in trading earlier this week. Market turmoil eased, while traders and investors awaited the an important announcement 

That is actually the results of policy meetings from several major central banks over the coming days. Expectations of a Fed rate hike in 2022 peaked during the trading last week.

That is why; the US dollars then jumped to an 18-month high. Money markets currently account for a 90 percent chance of four Fed rate hikes through the end of this year.

That is as well as a 67% chance of five hikes happened so far. The USD is 'smiling' again, based on a combination of a recalculation of interest rates and weaker risk sentiment, said the analysts from Barclays in a weekend note.

 

Barclay’s Prediction for the USD rally in the Future

Going forward, Barclays expects the potential for a continued United States dollar rally based on expectations that the "rate hike" will tend to be limited. How is it possible? 

The Risk-on-risk-off sentiment in equity markets could push that position iseven higher, but last week's USD move signals that the Fed's "aggressive" rate normalization cycle is already factored into the current rate. 

Meanwhile, the market participants will also highlight some central bank meetings that are likely to give birth to crucial decisions. It starts with the Australian Central Bank (RBA) meeting.

The meeting itself will be held on Tuesday, then the BoE and ECB meetings on Thursday. These moments will be highlighted by the analysts and people in the world. 

The Market Has Some Expectations from the Meeting

The market expects the RBA to end its Quantitative Easing program in the announcement of its meeting results tomorrow morning. But the finalisation of QE alone may not be enough.

It mean that it may not be the catalyst for the Aussie, as the real focus lies on the matter of whether the RBA will prepare to raise rates. This point is quite reasonable.

The Bank of England's meeting is potentially becoming a bigger catalyst. That is as the majority of analysts expect another BOE rate hike of as much as 25 basis points. 

If these expectations are realized, the GBP/USD pair is not necessarily soaring. But if those expectations fall, Cable seems to have room for a landslide in the future. 

The Next Meeting Announcement can be not so Noisy

The announcement of the outcome of the next meeting from the ECB is likely to be quieter. The consensus does not expect any policy change from the European central bank.

The condition will be the same although there is always a chance of a surprise at such an important event. It is because forex is a market which is quite dynamic and everything can happen. 

The dollar is in a strengthening cycle and has a room for further rally due to the support from interest rate differentials and increased levels of market volatility. 

However, this is the last stage of that movement. That possibility and opinion was offered by Kit Juckes of Societe Generale.

Meanwhile, the Oil Prices Increase

The oik prices increased and get the peak position in seven years. This position was happened on Friday and noted the straight weekly increase because of the geopolitical wave. 

Geopolitic made people were having more concern due to the tight energy source. In the weekly basic, the referred contract noted the longest increase since October. 

Brent increased by 69 cent and became $90.03 per barrel after reached $91.70 before. The United States crude oil was closed 21 cent higher in $86.82 per barrel in the market so far. 

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